Will there be a botched AI takeover/attempted shutdown evasion killing >100 people before 2050?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 06:46 UTC on 3 Jun 2026, Manifold prices “Will there be a botched AI takeover/attempted shutdown evasion killing >100 people before 2050?” at 27%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.

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Jan 2, 2050

Before 2050, will an AI system (or group of systems) kill at least 100 people in the process of trying to either take over from humans or evade being shut down, yet ultimately fail? Apr 4, 5:21pm: before 2040 → before 2050 Apr 6, 6:56pm: Botched AI takeover/attempted shutdown evasion killing >100 before 2050 → Will there be a botched AI takeover/attempted shutdown evasion killing >100 people before 2050?