Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?
Batteries are the major cost in EV prices. However, the rate of improvement of battery costs over the last 11 years is a 90% improvement. If you take that 90% improvement from $50/kWh in 2025 over 11 years to 2036, it goes something like this: 2025: $50/kWh 2027: $38/kWh 2030: $25/kWh 2033: $12/kWh 2036: $5/kWh In the end, if this pace of innovation in battery costs being reduced happens, the 200-mile range EV in 2030 would most likely have an around 40 kWh battery pack, be very lightweight, and get about 5 miles per kWh. That pack would cost around $1,000. Just for fun, if you take 2036 to 2047, and if you use another 90% reduction, you get a cost per kWh in 2047 of around $0.50 or 50 cents. That makes a 200-mile range EV with a 40 kWh battery pack have a pack cost of $20. Seems absolutely insane when you think of it today. Source This market outcome resolves true if the battery pack of 200-mile range EVs cost 1000 USD or less by Jan 1, 2030.
