What is the current probability for "Who is behind Ox Alpha, the mysterious new frontier LLM on OpenRouter?"?

Current Manifold odds for "Who is behind Ox Alpha, the mysterious new frontier LLM on OpenRouter?": Z.ai / Zhipu AI (GLM company) 99%, Other 0%, xAI / Cursor 0% (top 3 of 9 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/26/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/c8dUdt9SgO. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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event9 outcomes

Who is behind Ox Alpha, the mysterious new frontier LLM on OpenRouter?

·Science and Technology·ends Aug 26, 2026

vol cum

M168.8k

vol 24h

M76.8k

outcomes

ends

Aug 26, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 9

“Ox Alpha,” an anonymous “stealth” model that appeared on OpenRouter earlier today (August 20, 2026). It’s a reasoning model positioned for coding, sustained agentic work, and production use, with a 1,048,576-token context window, a 131,072-token output cap, and text/image/video input — listed as stealth/ox-alpha on OpenRouter. It’s free during this preview window, with the operator claiming near-unlimited rate limits and 100 trillion tokens/day of serving capacity. There is some buzz on Twitter that it is frontier or even better at coding. See also: @/Sketchy/what-will-the-release-name-of-ox-al

marketselected outcome

Z.ai / Zhipu AI (GLM company)

rank #1 · resolved: yes

China

99¢

▲ 6.5pp

24h change

vol cum

M134k

vol 24h

M65.1k

spread