Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030?

Manifold·Politics

United States

As of 18:20 UTC on 3 Jun 2026, Manifold prices “Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030?” at 8%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Manifold, Polymarket, Limitless and Kalshi.

8%

vol cum

M20.3k

vol 24h

M0

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 1, 2030

Resolves YES if Donald Trump spends any positive amount of time in prison while serving a sentence. It doesn't count if he is held while awaiting trial or sentencing. House arrest also doesn't count, it must be an official prison. However, it DOES count if he is held in prison awaiting execution or similar. Resolves NO if the above hasn't happened before 1 Jan 2030, 0000hrs UTC.