Will a third-party candidate win the US presidency by 2040?

Manifold·Politics

United States

As of 00:50 UTC on 21 Jun 2026, Manifold prices “Will a third-party candidate win the US presidency by 2040?” at 12%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Limitless, Manifold, Polymarket, Gemini and Kalshi.

12%

vol cum

M4.8k

vol 24h

M0

spread

n/a

ends

Dec 31, 2040

Including the 2040 election.