Will I deem Donut Lab's solid state battery claims in their video to have been false one year from now?
Donut Lab has posted this video: https://youtu.be/Y-aPS2AwMbc?si=Wgwx-LUcWMhp3L9k In it they make several claims about a new battery technology they've invented. One year from now, will I deem any of the claims made to have been false or disingenuous? I will resolve the market Yes if I do and no if I don't. I won't bet on this market. I will act in good faith. The resolution will be as accurate a reflection of my belief at the closing time as I can have it be. Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the resolution will depend on whether someone buying their system based on what was advertised in the YouTube video would feel scammed upon using it, on average. This applies even if technical claims are individually true but there are undisclosed downsides (like fast self-discharge in the hypothetical example discussed). Update 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified that even if all technical specifications are true (e.g., 400 Wh/kg, 11 C charging), the market could still resolve YES if there are significant undisclosed caveats that would make the overall claims misleading. Example given: if materials are technically "globally abundant" but so difficult to extract/refine that manufacturing at scale becomes impractical, this could warrant a YES resolution despite technical accuracy.
