Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?
This market resolves YES if, on or before June 30, 2026 (EOQ2), there is a coordinated user “economic blackout” or “user strike” in which participants deliberately reduce or halt spending or usage on one or more of these platforms to protest US government policies or actions, and at least one of the platforms publicly acknowledges that this protest caused a meaningful revenue impact. For this market, a “user economic blackout/strike” means: • A time‑bounded, organized call for users to stop or sharply reduce spending/usage (e.g., “no‑spend day/week,” “economic blackout,” “user strike”) aimed primarily at pressuring the US federal government, even if companies are named as secondary targets. The event must be explicitly acknowledged by a company in at least one of: • A financial filing or investor disclosure (10‑Q, 10‑K, 8‑K, earnings release/call transcript, shareholder letter, etc.), or • Public comments by a C‑suite executive or official spokesperson, or • An official press release or statement on the company’s website or IR channels. The acknowledgment must clearly indicate both: 1. That an organized user protest/boycott/blackout occurred that was politically directed at the government (e.g., described in coverage as an “economic blackout” against Trump or federal policy), and 2. That this action caused a non‑trivial negative impact on revenue or key monetization metrics for the company. Ordinary macro slowdowns, generic “headwinds,” or user declines not clearly linked by the company to a government‑targeting user protest will not count. If media/social media assert a government‑targeting blackout but there is no qualifying company‑level acknowledgment as defined above, the market resolves NO at the creator’s discretion, based on public records and reputable news coverage. Update 2026-01-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The specific companies covered by this market (beyond ChatGPT, Claude, and Perplexity explicitly named) will be determined at the creator's discretion. The scope includes big American consumer AI platforms. Smaller/downmarket companies are not likely to qualify as they are less likely to be targeted by such protests.
