Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?
As of 00:17 UTC on 6 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?” at 26%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold.
Resolves to YES if it becomes illegal to develop certain forms of AI in all US states. It must either be a ban at the federal level or a ban that every state independently enacts. Bans that attempt to prevent specific outcomes don't count; the ban must be targeted towards general capabilities research. For example, "no neural networks with over 100 billion parameters", or "no recurrent neural networks" would resolve this market to YES. "No AI-generated pornography" or "no AI designed to operate a military drone" would not be sufficient to resolve this to YES. In essence, I want this market to resolve YES if it seems the government recognizes the problems with having unaligned near-or-above-human-level AIs running around, and tries via regulation to prevent the existance of AIs above a certain level of intelligence. I'm open to a better operationalization of this concept if one is suggested.
