What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?
As of 11:43 UTC on 4 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 26 markets in “What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?” on Manifold are “Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem” at 100%, “Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer” at 100% and “Attorney General: Pam Bondi” at 100%. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket, Gemini and Manifold.
Begins on January 20, 2025 after President Trump is sworn in. The cabinet official must either be fired or resign during Trumps term as President. A death will not count. I will fill in the name next to the cabinet position once a person officially assumes the office. Update 2025-03-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Impeachment Clarification: Impeachment Outcome: If the office holder is found guilty during an impeachment trial and is removed from office, it will be considered as being fired. Update 2025-04-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Amicable Resignation Clarification: Amicable departures, including stepping down to pursue another role, will be treated as valid resignations. The intent is that nominees serve for the full presidential term, meaning mid-term voluntary departures count as resignations.
