Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029?

Manifold·Culture

As of 05:31 UTC on 11 Aug 2026, Manifold prices “Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029?” at 2%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.

2%

vol cum

M12.4k

vol 24h

M0

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 1, 2030

[tweet]Resolves based on the time of conception, not birth. An adopted child would count, as would a surrogate. (In the case of adoption, resolves based on the time of legal adoption.)