Will Trump pardon SBF?
As of 00:17 UTC on 6 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will Trump pardon SBF?” at 9%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and Limitless.
(@JoelBecker and I put a handshake bet on this at 2%, my $10 to his $490) Update 2025-03-09: Dropping the conditional "If Elected" from the title, as Trump won election. Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update: The market will resolve after Trump's current term ends The market will resolve if a pardon occurs Resolution happens at the earliest of the above events Update 2025-03-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Commutation Resolution Proposal: In the event of a commutation (instead of a full pardon), the market will resolve based on the percentage reduction of the original sentence. The calculation is based on the reduction: for example, if the original sentence is 25 years and it is commuted to 10 years, that represents a 15-year reduction, so the market would resolve at 60% (15/25). This rule applies only if a commutation occurs and is in addition to the resolution events already described.
