opentrade on
↗
event6 outcomes
When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
vol cum
M3.5k
vol 24h
M0
outcomes
6
ends
Jan 2, 2100
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 6
For decades, nuclear fusion was always "20 years away". Now it's time to settle the debate here! Will it ever happen, and when? I've opted for a range instead of a specific year, but you can specify the exact year in the comments below if you want. I've also allowed for adding new answers later for this poll, so if you think additional options need to be added, let me know! Will resolve when either of the following conditions are met: The first commercial nuclear fusion power station is built. Another energy source is preferred/more economically more competitive for base-load power, and nuclear fusion deployment is either halted or restricted to niche applications.
technology-defaultscience-defaultfusion-energyenergyenergy-policynuclear-power
marketselected outcome
Before 2035
rank #1
44¢
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
M133
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 2, 2100
timeline
opened · Aug 20, 2023opencloses · Jan 2, 2100
Before 2035 · prices over time
−24h
now
volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect
no volume history
similar markets
suggested by pdataWhen will nuclear fusion be achieved?
Before 204051¢Before 203544¢Before 203030¢· 0.0pp
$0 24h · 3 markets
Will we have a functioning, energy-producing, nuclear fusion reactor by 2033?
yes28¢
M0 24h · 1 market
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
yes11¢▲ 0.5pp
$0 24h · 1 market
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
yes9¢▲ 2.0pp
$261 24h · 1 market
Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?
yes23¢
M0 24h · 1 market
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?
yes54¢
$0 24h · 1 market