What is the current probability for "Who will be the President of France at some point in their life?"?

Current Manifold odds for "Who will be the President of France at some point in their life?": Jordan Bardella 36%, Gabriel Attal 26%, Edouard Philippe 22% (top 3 of 25 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 9/9/9999.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/kbLzfIM6W43R9xdMR80g. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

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event25 outcomes

Who will be the President of France at some point in their life?

·Politics·ends Sep 9, 9999

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M7.6k

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outcomes

ends

Sep 9, 9999

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showing 5 of 25

This is a long term market intended for people to be able to see at a glance people who might have high future political potential. An answer resolves YES when that person becomes president of the French Republic. Resolves NO upon their death if they have not become president. I may edit or N/A added answers if they are e.g. duplicates, unclear, etc.

politics-defaultfrench-politicsfranceemmanuel-macronwill-they-be-leader-someday

marketselected outcome

Jordan Bardella

rank #1

France

36¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

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M22

vol 24h

spread