Claude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
As of 14:01 UTC on 17 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 10 markets in “Claude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date” on Manifold are “Before 2027-01-16” at 98%, “Before 2027-02-01” at 97% and “Before 2027-02-16” at 97%. The event has M$724 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 20 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold.
The '+' means any version at or above 5.2 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.2 and releases Claude Fable 5.3 or Fable 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market. Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Fable 5.2, will also count. The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution. See also: @8AyI5Np5yl @OchSUnInIq @cgl2IP0yIC @LU5RqqqEuA @2OzL6Q56y8 @IZO2UZgUNO @2CqdhIO9cU @AnL9Aqgzc5 @N0qR0nZl8O @AzzEpzA8ys @ntStglnQz0 @SCnZAUUzEP @y5CU6hUn6s @qyC5ychznC @RlI6hyuNpU @2Rh2t5hALp @NONz6Ntycp @l9lRst5288 (this market) @ORA9UAlgdI @pNElq2SnCU @QL5hAdgQld @c5QycNqzUU @zNZZtUPO8d
