Grok 5 (xAI) release date
As of 03:23 UTC on 2 Nov 2026, the highest-priced of the 24 markets in “Grok 5 (xAI) release date” on Manifold are “Before August 2027” at 82%, “Before July 2027” at 76% and “Before June 2027” at 74%. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold.
"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not. The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution. See also: @8AyI5Np5yl (this market) @OchSUnInIq @2OzL6Q56y8 @2CqdhIO9cU @AzzEpzA8ys @ntStglnQz0 @RlI6hyuNpU @2Rh2t5hALp @NONz6Ntycp @l9lRst5288 @ORA9UAlgdI @QL5hAdgQld @8d2z2tUgsu @5lA5APSyPy @shslZstnCN @tO96p5USgQ @NlZyqghLqQ @cc5SnN5St2
