What is the current probability for "Grok 5 (xAI) release date"?

Current Manifold odds for "Grok 5 (xAI) release date": Before September 2026 45%, Before August 2026 22%, Before July 2026 3% (top 3 of 13 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/30/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/8AyI5Np5yl. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

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event13 outcomes

Grok 5 (xAI) release date

·Science and Technology·ends Aug 30, 2026

vol cum

M19.6k

vol 24h

M100

outcomes

ends

Aug 30, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 13

"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not. The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution. See also: @NU2IyqRq0u @LhlNpLyA2h @8AyI5Np5yl (this market) @OchSUnInIq @cgl2IP0yIC @cstO2OAIhZ @LU5RqqqEuA @t5Eh629zRE @2OzL6Q56y8 @IZO2UZgUNO @2CqdhIO9cU @6SLuEUSN2g

aiai-model-releasesxaitechnology-defaultgrok

marketselected outcome

Before September 2026

rank #1

45¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M595

vol 24h

spread

n/a