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event17 outcomes

Grok 5 (xAI) release date

Manifold·Science and Technology·ends Nov 1, 2026
vol cum
M23.8k
vol 24h
M417
outcomes
17
ends
Nov 1, 2026
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"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not. The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution. See also: @8AyI5Np5yl (this market) @OchSUnInIq @cgl2IP0yIC @LU5RqqqEuA @2OzL6Q56y8 @IZO2UZgUNO @2CqdhIO9cU @AnL9Aqgzc5 @N0qR0nZl8O @AzzEpzA8ys @ntStglnQz0 @SCnZAUUzEP @y5CU6hUn6s @qyC5ychznC @RlI6hyuNpU @2Rh2t5hALp @NONz6Ntycp @l9lRst5288 @ORA9UAlgdI @pNElq2SnCU @QL5hAdgQld @c5QycNqzUU @zNZZtUPO8d

aiai-model-releasesxaitechnology-defaultgrok
marketselected outcome
Before 2027
rank #1
43¢
24.9pp
24h change
vol cum
M480
vol 24h
M345
spread
n/a
ends
Nov 1, 2026
timeline
opened · Aug 7, 2026opencloses · Nov 1, 2026
Before 2027 · prices over time
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