Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses in any month of 2026?
Resolution criteria This market will resolve YES if, in any month of 2026, Ukraine’s net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is greater than zero square kilometres according to two or more of the following sources: ISW Black Bird Group Divgen LostArmour Creamy caprice Reuters Agence France-Presse Associated Press This market will otherwise resolve NO. Clarifications This market concerns de facto territorial changes. Territory gained or lost by diplomatic means (i.e. in a peace treaty) will be counted in this market, as well as territory gained or lost militarily. For the purpose of this market, Ukraine’s net territorial gain can be understood as equal in magnitude and opposite in direction to Russia’s net territorial loss in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. I will not trade in this market. Update 2026-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has identified two unresolved issues regarding potential YES resolution based on April 2026 data: ISW infiltrations: ISW's May 2 report provides two figures — one including infiltrations (net gain for Russia) and one excluding them (net loss for Russia). The creator tentatively leans toward including infiltrations as the default, based on historical consistency, but has not made a final decision. AFP as independent source: AFP's April analysis is based on ISW data. The creator is uncertain whether AFP and ISW should count as two separate sources for resolution purposes, noting that resolving on ISW data alone may be contrary to the market's intent, even if technically arguable. No concrete resolution decision has been made. The creator is soliciting arguments on both issues.
