Will Reform win the next UK election?
Win as in forms the next government. In the case of a coalition, if reform is the larger party in the coalition I will resolve yes, otherwise if they are the minor party in the coalition I will cancel the market and return funds. This seems fairest to me as even if they are in government I wouldn’t say they have technically “won” being a the smaller party of a coalition, and they haven’t really lost, either. List of my other reform related markets: https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-reform-win-less-than-50-seats https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-reform-uk-and-the-conservative https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-a-party-nigel-farage-is-a-memb https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-reform-uk-top-the-yougov-votin Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Non-Existence and N/A Criteria Clarification: No Automatic N/A: The absence of a party running specifically as "Reform" does not automatically trigger an N/A outcome. In most cases, factors that lead to the party’s non-existence would similarly cause it to lose the election. Niche Exception: An N/A resolution would only be considered in extremely niche cases where the party's non-existence is due to factors that are 100% unrelated to its performance as a party. Renaming: If the Reform party renames but maintains its key people, structure, and core political beliefs, the new identity will be treated as the subject of this market. Candidate Presence: The market continues even if the party fields only a single candidate or no candidates, as long as the party exists in any real form. Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Farage's Involvement and Its Impact: Irrelevant Role: Farage being part of any party or assuming a leadership role (e.g., if he becomes the leader of the Tories) does not affect the market. The market is solely about Reform’s performance. Outcome Consistency: Even in a scenario where Farage's involvement might otherwise seem influential, if the Conservatives win under his leadership, the market will still resolve as NO. No Change to Existence or N/A Criteria: Any situation involving Farage does not trigger a change in current resolution criteria or the application of N/A conditions. Update 2025-09-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Mergers treated as continuation: If Reform (the party itself, not just key people) merges with another party and ceases to exist independently, but the new party has the same key people and is broadly seen as a continuation of Reform via consolidation of vote share, that merged party will be treated as Reform for this market. Exception (N/A): If the merger occurs when Reform is polling very poorly (e.g., <10%) or is clearly the significantly smaller party by voting-intention polling at the time of merger, and the merged party wins, the market will resolve N/A (mirroring the coalition logic).
