Question 1

What is the current probability for "Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?": Samuel Alito 64%, Clarence Thomas 23%, Sonia Sotomayor 4% (top 3 of 10 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 1/1/2027.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/mYTZt7GuA0d68E95M5Gn. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?

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