Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 06:46 UTC on 3 Jun 2026, Manifold prices “Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030?” at 76%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.

76%

vol cum

M14.5k

vol 24h

M0

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n/a

ends

Jan 1, 2030

For this market to resolve "YES": We need three major polls with a >50% "yes" response to some variant of the question "Do you feel AI is a threat to the human race" (not just to jobs). We need to see at least one such poll in three different OECD countries, and one of those has to be the United States. If we don't see three such polls before 2030, this market resolves NO.