Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040?
As of 06:46 UTC on 3 Jun 2026, Manifold prices “Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040?” at 40%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
This market concerns AOH1996, a cancer therapeutic reported in this paper. See also this Wikipedia page. As of 2023-08-02, AOH1996 is in Phase I clinical trials for the treatment of solid tumors. This market resolves YES if AOH1996 gets FDA approval for use in humans at any time before 2040. This includes fast track, breakthrough therapy, accelerated approval, and priority review, as well as the normal approval pathway. It also includes any new approval pathways the FDA may develop prior to 2040. AOH1996 may be approved as a mono- or combination therapy. I will not bet in this market. At the time of writing, I am aware only of this other AOH1996 market. I created this market to additionally capture the long tail of less glamorous outcomes, including slow approval, approval for only small disease area, and approval as a combination therapy.
