Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?
As of 21:57 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 6 markets in “Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?” on Manifold are “N = 100” at 100%, “N = 500” at 98% and “N = 1000” at 88% (+3pp in 24h). The event has M$31 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has added answer options for the following values of N: 100 500 Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided the following definitions for how the market will be resolved: A robotaxi service is defined as one where a user can request a ride on-demand, similar to Uber or Lyft. It will still count if riders must first join a waitlist. The fleet size will be determined by the total number of Teslas used for an autonomous ride by someone other than the owner. A vehicle is considered "actively operating" if it provides at least one such ride within any given week. Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question, the creator has specified that a vehicle will be counted as a robotaxi even if a safety monitor is present, as long as there is no human in the driver's seat.
