Question 1

What is the current probability for "🗳️Who would Manifold vote for over both Trump AND Biden/Kamala in 1-on-1 presidential elections? [ADD RESPONSES]"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Manifold outcomes for "🗳️Who would Manifold vote for over both Trump AND Biden/Kamala in 1-on-1 presidential elections? [ADD RESPONSES]" are Paul Christiano 94%, Peter Singer 94%, Josh Shapiro 93% — 3 of 112 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 8/6/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/rVzVk4SZ8c65wgbDQCOw. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

🗳️Who would Manifold vote for over both Trump AND Biden/Kamala in 1-on-1 presidential elections? [ADD RESPONSES]

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