Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions
Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86): https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second All predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029. I will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/trumps-second-term-will-manifold-ou?play=true) Also See: @/StopPunting/which-trump-2028-term-prediction-ca @/StopPunting/which-trump-term-prediction-categor Update 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification: Approval Rating Date: The approval rating will be taken on the day of the 2026 midterms, not at any earlier point if the threshold is reached beforehand. Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Timing Clarification: The status of each cabinet position (confirmation/occupation) is determined strictly on the day of the 2026 midterms. A candidate is considered to have kept their post if they are still confirmed or occupying the position on that date.
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