Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions
As of 15:48 UTC on 31 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 113 markets in “Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions” on Manifold are “[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)” at 100%, “[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)” at 100% and “[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)” at 100%. The event has M$10 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold and Polymarket.
Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86): https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second All predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029. I will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/trumps-second-term-will-manifold-ou?play=true) Also See: @/StopPunting/which-trump-2028-term-prediction-ca @/StopPunting/which-trump-term-prediction-categor Update 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification: Approval Rating Date: The approval rating will be taken on the day of the 2026 midterms, not at any earlier point if the threshold is reached beforehand. Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Timing Clarification: The status of each cabinet position (confirmation/occupation) is determined strictly on the day of the 2026 midterms. A candidate is considered to have kept their post if they are still confirmed or occupying the position on that date.
