Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions

Markets

• [Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

  • YES: 100¢
  • NO: 0¢

• [Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

  • YES: 100¢
  • NO: 0¢

• [Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

  • YES: 100¢
  • NO: 0¢

• [Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

  • YES: 100¢
  • NO: 0¢

• [Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

  • YES: 100¢
  • NO: 0¢

• [Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

  • YES: 100¢
  • NO: 0¢

• [Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

  • YES: 100¢
  • NO: 0¢

• [Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

  • YES: 100¢
  • NO: 0¢

• [Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

  • YES: 100¢
  • NO: 0¢

• [Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

  • YES: 100¢
  • NO: 0¢

• [Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

  • YES: 100¢
  • NO: 0¢

• [Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

  • YES: 100¢
  • NO: 0¢

• [Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

  • YES: 100¢
  • NO: 0¢

• [Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

  • YES: 95¢
  • NO: 5¢

• [Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

  • YES: 92¢
  • NO: 8¢

• [Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

  • YES: 90¢
  • NO: 10¢

• [Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

  • YES: 89¢
  • NO: 11¢

• [Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

  • YES: 88¢
  • NO: 12¢

• [Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

  • YES: 87¢
  • NO: 13¢

• [Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

  • YES: 85¢
  • NO: 15¢

• [Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

  • YES: 85¢
  • NO: 15¢

• [Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

  • YES: 80¢
  • NO: 20¢

• [Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

  • YES: 79¢
  • NO: 21¢

• [Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

  • YES: 79¢
  • NO: 21¢

• [Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

  • YES: 78¢
  • NO: 22¢

• [Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

  • YES: 78¢
  • NO: 22¢

• [Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

  • YES: 76¢
  • NO: 24¢

• [Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

  • YES: 76¢
  • NO: 24¢

• [Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

  • YES: 76¢
  • NO: 24¢

• [Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

  • YES: 72¢
  • NO: 28¢

• [Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

  • YES: 71¢
  • NO: 29¢

• [Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

  • YES: 70¢
  • NO: 30¢

• [Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

  • YES: 68¢
  • NO: 32¢

• [Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

  • YES: 66¢
  • NO: 34¢

• [Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

  • YES: 64¢
  • NO: 36¢

• [Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

  • YES: 62¢
  • NO: 38¢

• [Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

  • YES: 61¢
  • NO: 39¢

• [Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

  • YES: 61¢
  • NO: 39¢

• [Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

  • YES: 60¢
  • NO: 40¢

• [Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

  • YES: 57¢
  • NO: 43¢

• [Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

  • YES: 56¢
  • NO: 44¢

• [Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

  • YES: 52¢
  • NO: 48¢

• [Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

  • YES: 52¢
  • NO: 48¢

• [Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

  • YES: 51¢
  • NO: 49¢

• [Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

  • YES: 51¢
  • NO: 49¢

• [Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

  • YES: 47¢
  • NO: 53¢

• [Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

  • YES: 46¢
  • NO: 54¢

• [Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

  • YES: 45¢
  • NO: 55¢

• [Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

  • YES: 45¢
  • NO: 55¢

• [Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

  • YES: 44¢
  • NO: 56¢

• [Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

  • YES: 41¢
  • NO: 59¢

• [Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

  • YES: 41¢
  • NO: 59¢

• [Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

  • YES: 40¢
  • NO: 60¢

• [Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

  • YES: 39¢
  • NO: 61¢

• [Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

  • YES: 39¢
  • NO: 61¢

• [Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

  • YES: 37¢
  • NO: 63¢

• [Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

  • YES: 37¢
  • NO: 63¢

• [Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

  • YES: 37¢
  • NO: 63¢

• [Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

  • YES: 37¢
  • NO: 63¢

• [Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

  • YES: 36¢
  • NO: 64¢

• [Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

  • YES: 36¢
  • NO: 64¢

• [Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

  • YES: 36¢
  • NO: 64¢

• [Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

  • YES: 36¢
  • NO: 64¢

• [Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

  • YES: 34¢
  • NO: 66¢

• [Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

  • YES: 33¢
  • NO: 67¢

• [Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

  • YES: 32¢
  • NO: 68¢

• [Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

  • YES: 32¢
  • NO: 68¢

• [Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

  • YES: 32¢
  • NO: 68¢

• [Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

  • YES: 32¢
  • NO: 68¢

• [Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

  • YES: 30¢
  • NO: 70¢

• [Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

  • YES: 30¢
  • NO: 70¢

• [Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

  • YES: 29¢
  • NO: 71¢

• [Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

  • YES: 29¢
  • NO: 71¢

• [Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

  • YES: 28¢
  • NO: 72¢

• [Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

  • YES: 28¢
  • NO: 72¢

• [Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

  • YES: 28¢
  • NO: 72¢

• [Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

  • YES: 28¢
  • NO: 72¢

• [Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

  • YES: 28¢
  • NO: 72¢

• [Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

  • YES: 27¢
  • NO: 73¢

• [Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

  • YES: 27¢
  • NO: 73¢

• [Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

  • YES: 27¢
  • NO: 73¢

• [Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

  • YES: 27¢
  • NO: 73¢

• [Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

  • YES: 26¢
  • NO: 74¢

• [Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

  • YES: 25¢
  • NO: 75¢

• [Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

  • YES: 25¢
  • NO: 75¢

• [Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

  • YES: 23¢
  • NO: 77¢

• [Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

  • YES: 23¢
  • NO: 77¢

• [Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

  • YES: 19¢
  • NO: 81¢

• [Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

  • YES: 19¢
  • NO: 81¢

• [Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

  • YES: 19¢
  • NO: 81¢

• [Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

  • YES: 18¢
  • NO: 82¢

• [Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

  • YES: 17¢
  • NO: 83¢

• [Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

  • YES: 17¢
  • NO: 83¢

• [Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

  • YES: 17¢
  • NO: 83¢

• [Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

  • YES: 16¢
  • NO: 84¢

• [Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

  • YES: 15¢
  • NO: 85¢

• [Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

  • YES: 14¢
  • NO: 86¢

• [Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

  • YES: 14¢
  • NO: 86¢

• [Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

  • YES: 14¢
  • NO: 86¢

• [Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

  • YES: 14¢
  • NO: 86¢

• [Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

  • YES: 13¢
  • NO: 87¢

• [Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

  • YES: 13¢
  • NO: 87¢

• [Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

  • YES: 11¢
  • NO: 89¢

• [Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

  • YES: 10¢
  • NO: 90¢

• [Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

  • YES: 8¢
  • NO: 92¢

• [Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

  • YES: 8¢
  • NO: 92¢

• [Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

  • YES: 7¢
  • NO: 93¢

• [Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

  • YES: 5¢
  • NO: 95¢

• [Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

  • YES: 5¢
  • NO: 95¢

• [Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

  • YES: 3¢
  • NO: 97¢

• [Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

  • YES: 3¢
  • NO: 97¢

• [Foreign Policy] The war in Ukraine ends in Trump’s first 90 days (Nate: 25%)

  • YES: 0¢
  • NO: 100¢

• [Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

  • YES: 0¢
  • NO: 100¢