How will trump’s second term end?
As of 10:54 UTC on 4 Oct 2026, “He declines to run a third time and steps down” leads “How will trump’s second term end?” on Manifold at 77%, followed by “He will die in office” at 7% and “He resigns before the end of his term” at 4%, out of 13 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.
This question is intended to be comprehensive for all possible ways trump’s second term could end. Update 2025-04-28 (PST): - If Trump is impeached and then resigns before or during the Senate trial, the market will be resolved as resigns. (AI summary of creator comment) Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Trump tries to run for a third term and fails (e.g. is prevented from being placed on the ballot by a court decision), the market will resolve as "runs and loses".
