Question 1

What is the current probability for "What will Trump do in his second term? (if he wins)"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Manifold outcomes for "What will Trump do in his second term? (if he wins)" are Fire Jack Smith and/or otherwise end the Jack Smith prosecutions via the DOJ 92%, Significantly reduce immigration from Mexico  90%, Withdraw from the Paris Agreement 87% — 2 of 28 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on Jan 1, 2028.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/zUbUc1Mklmpdz6NNtS43. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

What will Trump do in his second term? (if he wins)

similar markets