Question 1

What is the current probability for "What will Trump do in his second term? (if he wins)"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "What will Trump do in his second term? (if he wins)": Pressure Ukraine to give land to Russia for peace 100%, Accidentally reveal classified Intel to the public  95%, Fire Jack Smith and/or otherwise end the Jack Smith prosecutions via the DOJ 92% (top 3 of 28 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 1/1/2028.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/zUbUc1Mklmpdz6NNtS43. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

What will Trump do in his second term? (if he wins)

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