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What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?

Manifold·Politics·ends Jan 24, 2029

As of 03:47 UTC on 18 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 83 markets in “What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?” on Manifold are “Deny Climate Change” at 100%, “Post a Tweet” at 100% and “Bomb Iran” at 100%. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.

vol cum

M59.1k

vol 24h

M0

outcomes

83

ends

Jan 24, 2029

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showing 5 of 83

Feel free to add answers. Everything resolves N/A if he loses the 2024 presidential election.

us-politics2024-us-presidential-electiondonald-trump

marketselected outcome

Deny Climate Change

rank #1

United States

100¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M309

vol 24h

M0

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 24, 2029

timeline

opened · Jan 22, 2024opencloses · Jan 24, 2029

Deny Climate Change · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

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Manifold

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)100¢· 0.0ppprice of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)100¢· 0.0ppThe US leaves the World Health Organization100¢· 0.0pp

M0 24h · 264 markets

Kalshi

Will Trump go on SNL during his second term?

yes16¢· 0.0pp

$55 24h · 1 market

Polymarket

Trump out as President before 2027?

yes5¢▲ 0.1pp

$23.7k 24h · 1 market

Manifold

What will happen during Trump's second term?

Mark Carney wins 2029 Canada election16¢▼ 34.0ppUS buys Greenland and becomes 52nd state2¢▲ 0.6ppDemocracy survives62¢▲ 10.8pp

M258 24h · 122 markets

Kalshi

How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?

Between 600 and 6492¢▲ 0.6ppBetween 650 and 6992¢▼ 2.4ppBetween 400 and 44920¢· 0.0pp

$1.1k 24h · 12 markets

Manifold

What will Trump do in his second term? (if he wins)

Pressure Ukraine to give land to Russia for peace100¢· 0.0ppAccidentally reveal classified Intel to the public 95¢· 0.0ppWithdraw from the Paris Agreement95¢· 0.0pp

M0 24h · 28 markets