Question 1

What is the current probability for "What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Manifold outcomes for "What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?" are Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time 89%, Exercise 88%, Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants  82% — 17 of 76 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 1/24/2029.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/Ru1S6qJwF73r4J86E8P3. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?

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