What is the current probability for "Will Donald Trump complete his second presidential term (2025–2029)?"?

Current Manifold odds for "Will Donald Trump complete his second presidential term (2025–2029)?": Completes full term 77%, Dies of natural causes or illness 13%, Does not complete term 8% (top 3 of 5 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/21/2029.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/h0g2N0cqIN. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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event5 outcomes

Will Donald Trump complete his second presidential term (2025–2029)?

·Politics·ends Jan 21, 2029

vol cum

M28.4k

vol 24h

M116

outcomes

ends

Jan 21, 2029

outcomesclick to inspect →

Completes full term Trump remains President and alive through January 20, 2029, and peacefully transfers power on that date as required by the Constitution. Staying in office beyond January 20, 2029 for any reason will not count as completing a full term. Does not complete term Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029 by resignation, impeachment, 25th Amendment process, legal action, incapacity, voluntary hand-over, exile, coup, or any other non-fatal removal, and remains alive. If Trump is still claiming presidential authority after Jan 20, 2029, thus not ‘completing’ his term, the market will resolve to this option. Dies of natural causes or illness Trump dies from disease, aging, or any internal medical cause while serving as President. Dies from assassination or external violence Trump dies as a result of assassination, attack, or any external act of violence while serving as President. Resolution Notes: Outcome determined by official announcements and consensus from major news outlets. “Completes full term” requires Trump to leave office on January 20, 2029. “Does not complete term” includes any non-fatal early departure. “Natural causes or illness” = any internal medical cause (includes accidents not provably violent). “Assassination or external violence” = any fatal external attack (includes e.g. air crashes provably caused by hostile intent). This market is for predictive purposes only and does not advocate or endorse any outcome. Update 2025-07-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that to resolve as Completes full term, Trump must remain President through January 20, 2029. Leaving office before this date will not count. Update 2025-11-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified potential 'Other' resolution cases: Suicide Government collapse Disappearance without removal Coma/incapacity without removal Indeterminate cause of death Major constitutional changes to term length or limits (would be discussed with holders)

politics-defaultus-politicsdeath-marketsmagalanddonald-trump

marketselected outcome

Completes full term

rank #1

United States

77¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M6.9k

vol 24h

M116