event4 outcomes

Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by...?

Polymarket·Politics·ends Nov 3, 2026

As of 13:07 UTC on 25 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 4 markets in “Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by...?” on Polymarket are “October 31” at 2% (-1pp in 24h), “August 31” at 0% and “September 15” at 0%. The event has no Polymarket-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Gemini, Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion and Predict.

vol cum

$6.5k

vol 24h

outcomes

ends

Nov 3, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

SenateMidtermsPoliticsNate SilverUS Election

marketselected outcome

October 31

rank #1

United States

2¢

▼ 0.6pp

24h change

vol cum

$3.3k

vol 24h

spread

0.02

ends

Nov 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point by the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the Silver Bulletin Flipr Forecast of the 2026 Senate election gives Republicans a greater than 50% chance to control the United States Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 50.0% chance shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the "Deluxe" version of the forecast, that can be found at https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist. If Silver Bulletin's "Deluxe" Flipr model becomes permanently unavailable, the "Classic" model will be used.

timeline

opened · Aug 21, 2026opencloses · Nov 1, 2026

October 31 · prices over time

−24h

now

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