$100k fee imposed on H1B Visas?
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/trump-mulls-adding-new-100000-fee-h-1b-visas-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-09-19/ This resolves true if a fee largely in line with this report goes into effect. I'm sure there will be grey area here, so I won't participate. If there are exceptions that are rare, but >=75% of H1Bs are impacted, I'll resolve yes. I'd trust a combination of official estimates and mainstream reports to decide if 75% is met. I'd define this based on 75% of the H1B load prior to the rule not after, but if only post rule data is available I'll trust that. This means if, for example, all SWEs suddenly get fees and their use drops to 0, I'd count the fraction from before the rule. Some calculation adding up the total cost of the application doesn't count. There has to be an explicit 100k fee, not something like "50k fee + lawyer costs usually adds up to 100k". Somewhat arbitrarily I'd like the policy to be in effect for at least a month. If a court intervenes in less than a month, I'll wait until it actually goes into effect. If a new visa is created with this fee AND H1B is limited by more than 75% I'll resolve yes. Update 2025-09-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The 75% impact threshold will be evaluated based on new H-1Bs, not existing H-1B holders already in the U.S. Update 2026-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The denominator for the 75% threshold includes everyone who did not already have an H-1B, including people on other visas inside the U.S. (e.g., F-1/OPT to H-1B change-of-status cases). These are counted as part of the total, not excluded.
