Will Trump expand the H-1B program?
As of 10:15 UTC on 16 Oct 2026, Kalshi prices “Will Trump expand the H-1B program?” at 19%. The market has no Kalshi-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
If the number of allowable H-1B visas as of Issuance (as of certification, the cap is 65,000 visas and an additional 20,000 for advanced degrees) has been increased after Issuance and before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Increasing the current cap (or eliminating it entirely) or exemption for advanced degrees, or creating new exemptions, would be encompassed by the Payout Criterion. The Payout Criterion also encompasses creating a third kind of H-1B visa other than the normal visa and the exemption for advanced degrees.
