marketsingle market
Will Trump expand the H-1B program?
United States
22%
vol cum
$122.9k
vol 24h
$0
spread
0.08
ends
Jan 20, 2029
Yes 22¢
No 78¢
If the number of allowable H-1B visas as of Issuance (as of certification, the cap is 65,000 visas and an additional 20,000 for advanced degrees) has been increased after Issuance and before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Increasing the current cap (or eliminating it entirely) or exemption for advanced degrees, or creating new exemptions, would be encompassed by the Payout Criterion. The Payout Criterion also encompasses creating a third kind of H-1B visa other than the normal visa and the exemption for advanced degrees.
timeline
opened · Dec 19, 2024opencloses · Jan 20, 2029