Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
This resolves to YES if we are confident that any model from DeepSeek, whether or not it existed at the time this question was created, would have been held responsible for a catastrophic risk, anywhere in the world, as it would have been judged by the vetoed SB 1047. This resolves to NO if that does not happen by 1/1/2027. If we are actively uncertain if this event happened, this resolves to my best estimate % chance it happened - which will be the market price if I think market is reasonable and not manipulated. I will likely not answer ANY clarification questions, period, after my recent experiences. None. Sorry. Similarly: If there is a dispute on this market that would prove a distraction unjustified by the associated volume, I will probably turn this over to the mods then. Update 2025-23-01 (PST): - Market Closing Date: The market will close on 01/01/2027. (AI summary of creator comment)