By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?
As of 13:52 UTC on 2 Nov 2026, Manifold prices “By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?” at 4%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.
Formalization of: https://twitter.com/robbensinger/status/1725286678401835210. 'Hit a wall' means roughly as I understand it that rate of advancement of underlying capabilities has slowed greatly compared to the pace of 2021-2023. Resolution will be my evaluation of consensus opinion. Best available form of polling will be used if needed. I will ask about the term 'hit a wall' and noting how I understand its meaning, in that case. Note that this measures gains in the underlying capabilities of the AI systems. It does NOT refer to their economic impacts, which may still be accelerating. See here for house rules: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ge3Jf5Hnon8wq4xqT/zvi-s-manifold-markets-house-rules
