In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 00:17 UTC on 6 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?” at 35%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.

Linked to the ACX post "Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know". If in 20 years, a brief review of the evidence convinces me that the sperm count decline was substantially real, I will resolve this YES. This is true even if the decline has stopped by 2043 (ie scientists then believe it was declining now, but is no longer declining at that time).