Question 1

What is the current probability for "Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?": Diet and obesity 45%, Plastics 40%, Sunlight and circadian rhythm 10% (top 3 of 5 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 1/2/2043.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/NolrujDZunqwMU0jEJ9B. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?

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