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Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?
Manifold·Science and Technology·ends Jan 2, 2043
As of 22:51 UTC on 22 Oct 2026, “Diet and obesity” leads “Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?” on Manifold at 45%, followed by “Plastics” at 39% and “Sunlight and circadian rhythm” at 11%, out of 5 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.
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Jan 2, 2043
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Related ACX post Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know. I will go off of some combination of how sure scientists are that it matters, vs. how big scientists think the effect is.