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[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Manifold·Business
M
68%
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
M57.5k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 1, 2030
YES 68¢
NO 32¢

Lantern Bioworks is attempting to cure cavities via a treatment that modifies the oral microbiome; see this manifund proposal and this precondition market. (https://manifold.markets/embed/Austin/if-funded-will-lantern-bioworks-suc)<strike>If they achieve their bioengineering goal</strike> They have achieved their bioengineering goal. Will they be able to get "shots in arms" (or, uh, "bacteria in mouths") at a 10,000-person scale by 2030? (Participants treated in trials count.) It's not clear how public this information will be, though hopefully they'll be willing to share. Resolution may be delayed. If 6+ months after close it seems like we won't get a concrete answer, may resolve to % based on my credence that this has happened. I will not bet.

timeline
opened · Jul 20, 2023opencloses · Jan 1, 2030
[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030? · prices over time
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