Question 1

What is the current probability for "By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee."?

Accepted Answer

"YES" is currently 67% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 1/12/2030.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/uueDZTL9AfiRaFY1Y4QS. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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