What is the current probability for "Robots reliably do my laundry by?"?

Current Manifold odds for "Robots reliably do my laundry by?": Before Q3 2032 70%, Before Q1 2032 65%, Before Q3 2031 56% (top 3 of 12 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/1/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/RS9q6PAC5P. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

↗

event12 outcomes

Robots reliably do my laundry by?

·Science and Technology·ends Jan 1, 2027

vol cum

M12.7k

vol 24h

outcomes

ends

Jan 1, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 12

If some robots are commercially available to regular people and can reliably do my laundry from start to finish by <date> then <date> resolves YES Update 2026-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The robot must be able to perform the full laundry workflow autonomously: Locate and bring dirty clothes to the washing machine Start the wash cycle Move clothes to the dryer Fold the clothes Put clothes away in the closet All steps must be done reliably without user intervention. Update 2026-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the hamper requirement: A robot that requires a specific type of hamper (e.g. cylindrical, cubic) that can be purchased is acceptable A robot that requires purchasing a proprietary special hamper from the robot company is not acceptable Update 2026-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding acceptable requirements for the robot: A specific type of hamper (e.g. cylindrical, cubic) or detergent that can be purchased is acceptable Modifications to the home (washer, closet, folding surface, floor, etc.) are not acceptable due to apartment restrictions Update 2026-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Home modifications are not acceptable for resolution. The robot must handle the chores as-is; solutions that hard-code the environment (e.g. require proprietary modifications to the washer, dryer, closet, or floor) do not count. Update 2026-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding washing machine/dryer errors: If an error is caused by robot action, it counts as human intervention if a human must resolve it If an error is not caused by robot action, resolving it does not count as human intervention The creator has a front load washing machine. Update 2026-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will always try their best to obtain and test a qualifying robot. If a robot is so limited in availability that the creator cannot reasonably access one, it would not be considered commercially available and would not qualify for YES resolution.

roboticsoptimusbig-techteslatechnology-default

marketselected outcome

Before Q3 2032

rank #1

70¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M1.8k

vol 24h

spread

n/a