When will a robot reliably pass "The Coffee Test"?
As of 23:27 UTC on 14 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 6 markets in “When will a robot reliably pass "The Coffee Test"?” on Manifold are “Before 2030” at 69%, “Before 2029” at 60% and “Before 2028” at 59%. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.
"The Coffee Test" is an alternative to Turing test proposed by Steve Wozniak. It goes as follows: A machine is required to enter an average American home and figure out how to make coffee: find the coffee machine, find the coffee, add water, find a mug, and brew the coffee by pushing the proper buttons. This has not yet been completed. The test has to be repeated several times under independent control. (I.e. self-published video by Boston Dynamics is not enough.) The success rate has to be at least 50% out of at least 3 attempts in different houses. The market will be resolved positively after a month has passed since the successful demonstration to give some time to uncover possible cheating. Related question with a different time scale: @/MatthewBarnett/will-a-robot-be-created-that-is-capI do not bet on my own questions.
