Elon Musk actually gifts a SpaceX share to every American child in 2027?
As of 01:44 UTC on 21 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Elon Musk actually gifts a SpaceX share to every American child in 2027?” at 24% (-1pp in 24h). The market has M$4k in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Manifold and Kalshi.
Here's the context: Elon Musk (@elonmusk) on X Resolution details: They don't need to receive the money within 2027. If a consensus of credible reporting says that Musk has initiated the process within the calendar year of 2027, then I'll leave the market open and it can resolve once the money is received (even if that stretches beyond 2027). It needs to cover >90% of children (<5 years old at the start of 2027) who are American citizens during the year 2027. It is ok if a smaller % actually receive it (e.g., the parent has to put in some work to get it). I'll evaluate coverage based on my subjective sense of "if a typical motivated parent wanted to put a bit of work in, could they actually secure this for their child). I will be ~somewhat flexible on what "one SpaceX share" means. Probably it will be a threshold like receiving monetary value of at least >50% the market value of a SpaceX share.
