Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?
Resolution Criteria This market resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran is overthrown or ceases to exist as the governing authority of Iran by December 31, 2026. Resolution requires a change in the fundamental structure of state power—either through popular uprising, military coup, or other means—resulting in the end of clerical rule under the current system. The market resolves NO if the Islamic Republic remains the de facto governing authority at year-end, regardless of internal instability, leadership changes within the system, or concessions made to protesters. Background Mass demonstrations erupted across Iran beginning December 28, 2025, initially sparked by frustration over skyrocketing inflation, rising food prices, and severe depreciation of the Iranian rial, but quickly evolved into a broader movement demanding an end to the Islamic Republic's rule. The country's rial currency lost nearly half its value against the dollar in 2025, with inflation standing at about 50 percent in December. The protests were initially described as Iran's largest since 2022, but according to a British-Iranian activist, this wave is stronger than previous ones. Workers from Tehran's central fruit and vegetable market joined the uprising, and the country's inflation rate reached 42.2% in December 2025. From the seizure of government buildings in western provinces to unprecedented chants against the clergy in their traditional stronghold of Qom, the wall of fear protecting the theocracy is rapidly crumbling. Considerations Iran's security apparatus and broader military-security establishment remain largely coherent, and with no clear opposition leadership around which a broad consensus has formed, the protests do not pose a greater threat to the system than previous waves of unrest, as yet. The Islamic Republic has confronted internal challenges more serious than the present one, making it premature to conclude that the protests will lead to regime change, particularly given the lack of an organized opposition that could serve as an alternative to the existing order. According to political scientist Erica Chenoweth, peaceful protests that include 3.5 percent of a population—which in Iran's case would be just over 3 million people out of roughly 90 million—almost always translate into regime collapse. However, prediction platform Polymarket put the chances of the Iranian government falling by the end of the year at 16 percent.
