Will there be a lunar base by the end of 2029?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 06:05 UTC on 12 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will there be a lunar base by the end of 2029?” at 10%. The market has M$250 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Manifold, Opinion, Kalshi and Myriad.

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Jan 1, 2030

A lunar base means any infrastructure on the moon designed to remain there permanently and support human habitation. In order for this question to resolve positivly, such a base must be complete enough that humans could live there for a few weeks, but they don't actually have to be living there.