Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will there be another pandemic in the USA that results in mask mandates on public transit by the end of 2030?"?

Accepted Answer

"YES" is currently 30% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on Jan 1, 2031.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/zl5VJ9CmA9YPiZTcQCIq. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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