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opentrade on Opinion ↗
marketsingle market

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Opinion·Science and Technology
27%
▲ 1.1pp
24h change
vol cum
$4M
vol 24h
$20k
spread
n/a
ends
Dec 31, 2026
YES 27¢
NO 73¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 15, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

timeline
opened · Dec 19, 2025opencloses · Dec 31, 2026
prices over time · 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? highlighted
−24h
now
volume · 24h windows
no volume history

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