What is the current probability for "Fed rate cut by...?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Fed rate cut by December Meeting?": December Meeting 4%, October Meeting 3%, September Meeting 0% (top 3 of 8 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Jan 8, 2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/106884. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

↗

event8 outcomes

Fed rate cut by...?

·Finance·ends Jan 8, 2027

vol cum

$3.5M

vol 24h

$29.8k

outcomes

ends

Jan 8, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 8

Jerome PowellFedFed RatesFinanceEconomyEconomic Policy

marketselected outcome

December Meeting

rank #1

United States

4¢

▼ 3.2pp

24h change

vol cum

$334.2k

vol 24h

$9.5k

spread

0.01

ends

Jan 8, 2027

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

timeline

opened · Feb 26, 2026opencloses · Jan 8, 2027

December Meeting · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history