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event2 outcomes

Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by...?

Polymarket·Science and Technology·ends Feb 1, 2027

As of 00:12 UTC on 22 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 2 markets in “Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by...?” on Polymarket are “January 31” at 32% (+6pp in 24h) and “December 31” at 31% (+12pp in 24h). The event has $110 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Polymarket, Manifold and Kalshi.

vol cum
$1.6k
vol 24h
$110
outcomes
2
ends
Feb 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
AITechHaikuClaudeAnthropicRecurringAI Releases
marketselected outcome
January 31
rank #1
32¢
▲ 6.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$861
vol 24h
$50
spread
0.06
ends
Feb 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model (5.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 or Claude Haiku 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 6, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Haiku 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

timeline
opened · Oct 8, 2026opencloses · Feb 1, 2027
January 31 · prices over time
−24h
now
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