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event4 outcomes

Panama Canal effectively closed by...?

Polymarket·Politics·ends Jan 1, 2027

As of 02:05 UTC on 12 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 4 markets in “Panama Canal effectively closed by...?” on Polymarket are “December 31” at 9% (-14pp in 24h), “November 30” at 5% (-13pp in 24h) and “October 31” at 3% (-6pp in 24h). The event has $88 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 20 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and Opinion.

vol cum
$290
vol 24h
$88
outcomes
4
ends
Jan 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
OilIranYemenhouthiHouthisred seatrafficPolitics
marketselected outcome
December 31
rank #1
Panama
9¢
▼ 14.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$3
vol 24h
$0
spread
0.05
ends
Jan 1, 2027

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Panama Canal less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Panama Canal Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Panama Canal at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/44d73fd00bbc4f73a16d46d5beb11b4d , including both the chart and downloadable files.

timeline
opened · Oct 10, 2026opencloses · Jan 1, 2027
December 31 · prices over time
−24h
now
volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect
no volume history

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