Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
As of 16:33 UTC on 3 Nov 2026, the highest-priced of the 13 markets in “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?” on Polymarket are “December 31” at 12%, “November 30” at 7% (+1pp in 24h) and “October 31” at 0%. The event has $66.6k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world matches it to “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?” on Limitless, an event with 4 outcomes. pdata.world compares it with 20 related events on Limitless, Kalshi and Polymarket.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.
