Will "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the independence referendum?
As of 06:29 UTC on 20 Oct 2026, Polymarket prices “Will "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the independence referendum?” at 55% (+12pp in 24h). The market has $2.4k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold.
Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Leave" receives more valid votes than "Remain" on Question 10 in at least one of the electoral divisions for which Elections Alberta reports the results of this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An electoral division in which "Remain" and "Leave" receive the exact same number of valid votes will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Each electoral division's result will include all valid votes attributed to that electoral division in the official results; votes that are not attributed to any specific electoral division will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated in any electoral division before its vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If results by electoral division are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Alberta, including Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/ and https://results.elections.ab.ca/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
