Polymarket·Science and Technology·ends Feb 1, 2027
As of 01:58 UTC on 29 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 2 markets in “Next Gemini Argon released by...?” on Polymarket are “January 31” at 33% (-20pp in 24h) and “December 31” at 26% (-6pp in 24h). The event has $435 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 20 related events on Polymarket and Kalshi.
vol cum
$5.6k
vol 24h
$435
outcomes
2
ends
Feb 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
AITechArgonGeminigoogleAI Releases
marketselected outcome
January 31
rank #1
33¢
▼ 20.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$3.2k
vol 24h
$250
spread
0.05
ends
Feb 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Argon model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Argon" and be a new Gemini Argon model release designated as newer than Gemini 4 Argon (gemini-4-argon, released October 13, 2026), regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors, including decimal version increases, new whole-number generations, or newer dated builds. For example, a newer Argon model named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Argon, including a decimal increase such as a 4.1 or a new whole-number generation such as a Gemini 5 Argon, or a newer Argon release under a new, distinct model identifier, would qualify, while Gemini 4 Argon itself, including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, price change, or thinking-level setting of it, and models whose name does not include "Argon," such as Gemini Pro, Gemini Flash, or Gemini Flash-Lite models, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
