Polymarket·Science and Technology·ends Jan 4, 2027
As of 03:54 UTC on 29 Oct 2026, “No release by January 3” leads “When will Gemini Carbon be released?” on Polymarket at 29% (-19pp in 24h), followed by “November 9–November 15” at 24% (-26pp in 24h) and “December 28–January 3” at 21% (-30pp in 24h), out of 11 outcomes. The event has $305 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 20 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold.
vol cum
$305
vol 24h
$305
outcomes
11
ends
Jan 4, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 11
AITechGeminigoogleAI Releases
marketselected outcome
No release by January 3
rank #1
29¢
▼ 19.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$145
vol 24h
$145
spread
0.26
ends
Jan 4, 2027
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.
A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
